The Morrisian Indicator

Well, I suppose this is turning into a weekly blog.  Let me start out with the bad news first.  To date I have taken positions in SLV, MTW, OAS & TCK using real money and I have gotten out of each of these positions at a loss.  It was strange how I got out of SLV.  I thought I had put  in the order to get out only if SLV went below a particular price, but I put a limit order of .25 cents on selling the call options.  It appears my call options were sold with out SLV necessarily reaching the pricepoint after wished to get out.  The position OAS did sell out after it reached my stop and the puts were sold for my limit price.  This was after oil companies unexpectantly rose after there was an apparent cap placed on oil production.  I got out of MTW without waiting for it to hit my stop because it became clear that the stock was bouncing off of longterm support.  I got out of TCK after taking only a minimal loss when the order to buy this particular position was executed with the stock having risen above my centerline indicator.  Interestingly, TCK has just gone below the centerline again in a very sharp manner.  Looking at a chart of TCK one can see a second engujlfing bar to the downside after only a few days.  Technically this may not be considered and engulfing bar because the high price recorded was a little bit less than the prior year, but still there is definite weakening pattern here.  I might try to buy more puts on TCK except for the fact that I think it might be wiser to buy puts on MPC because it seems about ready to give a signal by going below the centerline.  When one looks at a longterm chart of MPC the stock looks particularly good for a short because the 50 period MA is crossing below the 200 period MA and the price seems to be running into fibonnacci resistance.  The only problem is that MPC is maintaining at .17 on my indicator but I am expecting a crossover this week.  The fact that MPC is in Consumer cyclicals is also good for a short because I espect a continual weakening of consumer demand.

Last week I actually took a long position in AMD since AMD convincingling gave a buy signal and is now sitting at .23 on my  indicator.  More important is the fact that AMD broke above the 20 period MA and appears ready to complete a handle formation on the longterm chart by getting back up to 8 dollars which should give me a nice profit on only 3 options.  AMD is the only long position that I now have except for GLD which is currently showing my worst loss an negative 150 dollars.  However, I am not worried about this positions because GLD continually fluctuates in price between two certain points and it is about to bounce off of a lowpoint and will probably be headed higher soon.   The high prices for GLD seems to be getting depressing and is starting to form a wedge pattern that I expect it will break out of to the upside so I am not really worried about GLD right now.  My remaining positions in CBG, CX and XLF are all short and seemingly acting in a manner that they want to go down farther.  I am expecting big profits from these positions  to make up for my losses which are now standing at less than $600.

 

EC Morris